Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.

The three-dimensional vortical nature of atmospheric and oceanic turbulent flows

Using a novel numerical method at unprecedented resolution, we demonstrate that structures of small to intermediate scale in rotating, stratified flows are intrinsically three-dimensional. Such flows are characterized by vortices (spinning volumes of fluid), regions of large vorticity gradients, and filamentary structures at all scales. It is found that such structures have predominantly three-dimensional dynamics below a horizontal scale LLR, where LR is the so-called Rossby radius of deformation, equal to the characteristic vertical scale of the fluid H divided by the ratio of the rotational and buoyancy frequencies f/N. The breakdown of two-dimensional dynamics at these scales is attributed to the so-called "tall-column instability" [D. G. Dritschel and M. de la Torre Juárez, J. Fluid. Mech. 328, 129 (1996)], which is active on columnar vortices that are tall after scaling by f/N, or, equivalently, that are narrow compared with LR. Moreover, this instability eventually leads to a simple relationship between typical vertical and horizontal scales: for each vertical wave number (apart from the vertically averaged, barotropic component of the flow) the average horizontal wave number is equal to f/N times the vertical wave number. The practical implication is that three-dimensional modeling is essential to capture the behavior of rotating, stratified fluids. Two-dimensional models are not valid for scales below LR. ©1999 American Institute of Physics.

Modeling chemotaxis reveals the role of reversed phosphotransfer and a bi-functional kinase-phosphatase

Understanding how multiple signals are integrated in living cells to produce a balanced response is a major challenge in biology. Two-component signal transduction pathways, such as bacterial chemotaxis, comprise histidine protein kinases (HPKs) and response regulators (RRs). These are used to sense and respond to changes in the environment. Rhodobacter sphaeroides has a complex chemosensory network with two signaling clusters, each containing a HPK, CheA. Here we demonstrate, using a mathematical model, how the outputs of the two signaling clusters may be integrated. We use our mathematical model supported by experimental data to predict that: (1) the main RR controlling flagellar rotation, CheY6, aided by its specific phosphatase, the bifunctional kinase CheA3, acts as a phosphate sink for the other RRs; and (2) a phosphorelay pathway involving CheB2 connects the cytoplasmic cluster kinase CheA3 with the polar localised kinase CheA2, and allows CheA3-P to phosphorylate non-cognate chemotaxis RRs. These two mechanisms enable the bifunctional kinase/phosphatase activity of CheA3 to integrate and tune the sensory output of each signaling cluster to produce a balanced response. The signal integration mechanisms identified here may be widely used by other bacteria, since like R. sphaeroides, over 50% of chemotactic bacteria have multiple cheA homologues and need to integrate signals from different sources.

Effect of dietary vitamin A restriction on marbling and conjugated-linoleic acid (CLA) content in Holstein steers

To determine the effect of duration of dietary vitamin A restriction on site of fat deposition in growing cattle, 60 Holstein steers (BW = 218.4 ± 6.55 kg) were fed a diet based on high-moisture corn with 2,200 IU supplemental vitamin A/kg DM (C) or no supplemental vitamin A for a long (243 d; LR) or short (131 d; SR) restriction prior to harvest at 243 d. The SR steers were fed the C diet for the first 112 d. Steers were penned individually and fed for ad libitum intake. Jugular vein blood samples for serum retinol analysis were collected on d 1, 112, and 243. Carcass samples were collected for composition analysis. Subcutaneous fat samples were collected for fatty acid composition. Fat samples from the i.m. and s.c. depot were collected to measure adipocyte size and density. Feedlot performance (ADG, DMI, and G:F) was not affected (P > 0.05) by vitamin A restriction. On d 243, the i.m. fat content of the LM was 33% greater (P < 0.05) for LR than for SR and C steers (5.6 vs. 3.9 and 4.2% ether extract, respectively). Depth of back fat and KPH percentage were not affected (P = 0.44 and 0.80, respectively) by vitamin A restriction. Carcass weight, composition of edible carcass, and yield grade were similar among treatments (P > 0.10). Liver retinol (LR = 6.1, SR = 6.5, and C = 44.7 µg/g; P < 0.01) was reduced in LR and SR vs. C steers. On d 243, LR and SR steers had similar serum retinol concentrations, and these were lower (P < 0.01) than those of C steers (LR = 21.2, SR = 25.2, and C = 36.9 µg/dL). Intramuscular adipose cellularity (adipocyte/mm2 and mean adipocyte diameter) on d 112 and d 243 was not affected (P > 0.10) by vitamin A restriction. Restricting vitamin A intake for 243 d increased i.m fat percentage without affecting s.c. or visceral fat deposition, feedlot performance, or carcass weight. Restricting vitamin A intake for 131 d at the end of the finishing period appears to be insufficient to affect the site of fat deposition in Holstein steers.

Rates of production of acetate, propionate, and butyrate in the rumen of lactating dairy cows given normal and low-roughage diets

Five lactating dairy cows with a permanent cannula in the rumen were given ( kg DM/d) a normal diet (7.8 concentrates, 5.1 hay) or a low-roughage (LR) diet (11.5 concentrates, 1.2 hay) in two meals daily in a two-period crossover design. Milk fat (g/kg) was severely reduced on diet LR. To measure rates of production of individual volatile fatty acids (VFA) in the rumen, 0.5 mCi 1-C-14-acetic acid, 2-C-14-propionic acid, or 1-C-14-n-butyric acid were infused into the rumen for 22 h at intervals of 2 to 6 d; rumen samples were taken over the last 12 h. To measure rumen volume, we infused Cr-EDTA into the rumen continuously, and polyethylene glycol was injected 2 h before the morning feed. Results were very variable, so volumes measured by rumen emptying were used instead. Net production of propionic acid more than doubled on LR, but acetate and butyrate production was only numerically lower. Net production rates pooled across both diets were significantly related to concentrations for each VFA. Molar proportions of net production were only slightly higher than molar proportions of concentrations for acetate and propionate but were lower for butyrate. The net energy value (MJ/d) of production of the three VFA increased from 89.5 on normal to 109.1 on LR, equivalent to 55 and 64% of digestible energy, respectively. Fully interchanging, three-pool models of VFA C fluxes are presented. It is concluded that net production rates of VFA can be measured in non-steady states without the need to measure rumen volumes.

2,2-Dialkyl-2H-benzimidazoles, the high energy tautomers of the corresponding 1,2-dialkyl-1H-benzimidazoles. Syntheses and their complexes with Cu(I) and Ag(I)

Reaction of Cu(1,2-phenylenediamine)(2)(ClO4)(2) with neat RR'=O (R = methyl and/or ethyl) (lives Cu(2,2-dialkyl-2H-benzimidazole)ClO4. demetallation of which by the action of aqueous ammonia yields Pure 2,2-dialkyl-2H-benzimidazoles. These are characterised by NMR. hi the X-ray crystal Structure, Ag(2,2-methyl-2H-benzimi-dazolc)NO3 is Found to be a spiral 1D coordination polymer where the 2H-benzimidazole acts as an N,N bridge between two Ag(I) centus. Although 2H-benzimidazoles are very unstable in the free state, they are quite stable in their Cu(I)(1) and Ag(I) complexes. The 1,2-tautomerisation in imidazole and benzimidazole have been Studied by means of transition state calculations at B3LYP/6-3 11 +G(2d,p)* level.

Mast cell tryptase and proteinase-activated receptor 2 induce hyperexcitability of guinea-pig submucosal neurons

Mast cells that are in close proximity to autonomic and enteric nerves release several mediators that cause neuronal hyperexcitability. This study examined whether mast cell tryptase evokes acute and long-term hyperexcitability in submucosal neurons from the guinea-pig ileum by activating proteinase-activated receptor 2 (PAR2) on these neurons. We detected the expression of PAR2 in the submucosal plexus using RT-PCR. Most submucosal neurons displayed PAR2 immunoreactivity, including those colocalizing VIP. Brief (minutes) application of selective PAR2 agonists, including trypsin, the activating peptide SL-NH2 and mast cell tryptase, evoked depolarizations of the submucosal neurons, as measured with intracellular recording techniques. The membrane potential returned to resting values following washout of agonists, but most neurons were hyperexcitable for the duration of recordings (> 30 min-hours) and exhibited an increased input resistance and amplitude of fast EPSPs. Trypsin, in the presence of soybean trypsin inhibitor, and the reverse sequence of the activating peptide (LR-NH2) had no effect on neuronal membrane potential or long-term excitability. Degranulation of mast cells in the presence of antagonists of established excitatory mast cell mediators (histamine, 5-HT, prostaglandins) also caused depolarization, and following washout of antigen, long-term excitation was observed. Mast cell degranulation resulted in the release of proteases, which desensitized neurons to other agonists of PAR2. Our results suggest that proteases from degranulated mast cells cleave PAR2 on submucosal neurons to cause acute and long-term hyperexcitability. This signalling pathway between immune cells and neurons is a previously unrecognized mechanism that could contribute to chronic alterations in visceral function.

Comments on 'Balance and the slow quasimanifold: some explicit results'

The concept of slow vortical dynamics and its role in theoretical understanding is central to geophysical fluid dynamics. It leads, for example, to “potential vorticity thinking” (Hoskins et al. 1985). Mathematically, one imagines an invariant manifold within the phase space of solutions, called the slow manifold (Leith 1980; Lorenz 1980), to which the dynamics are constrained. Whether this slow manifold truly exists has been a major subject of inquiry over the past 20 years. It has become clear that an exact slow manifold is an exceptional case, restricted to steady or perhaps temporally periodic flows (Warn 1997). Thus the concept of a “fuzzy slow manifold” (Warn and Ménard 1986) has been suggested. The idea is that nearly slow dynamics will occur in a stochastic layer about the putative slow manifold. The natural question then is, how thick is this layer? In a recent paper, Ford et al. (2000) argue that Lighthill emission—the spontaneous emission of freely propagating acoustic waves by unsteady vortical flows—is applicable to the problem of balance, with the Mach number Ma replaced by the Froude number F, and that it is a fundamental mechanism for this fuzziness. They consider the rotating shallow-water equations and find emission of inertia–gravity waves at O(F2). This is rather surprising at first sight, because several studies of balanced dynamics with the rotating shallow-water equations have gone beyond second order in F, and found only an exponentially small unbalanced component (Warn and Ménard 1986; Lorenz and Krishnamurthy 1987; Bokhove and Shepherd 1996; Wirosoetisno and Shepherd 2000). We have no technical objection to the analysis of Ford et al. (2000), but wish to point out that it depends crucially on R 1, where R is the Rossby number. This condition requires the ratio of the characteristic length scale of the flow L to the Rossby deformation radius LR to go to zero in the limit F → 0. This is the low Froude number scaling of Charney (1963), which, while originally designed for the Tropics, has been argued to be also relevant to mesoscale dynamics (Riley et al. 1981). If L/LR is fixed, however, then F → 0 implies R → 0, which is the standard quasigeostrophic scaling of Charney (1948; see, e.g., Pedlosky 1987). In this limit there is reason to expect the fuzziness of the slow manifold to be “exponentially thin,” and balance to be much more accurate than is consistent with (algebraic) Lighthill emission.

Treatment of child anxiety in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

Predicting sizes of hexagonal and gyroid metal nanostructures from liquid crystal templating

We describe a method to predict and control the lattice parameters of hexagonal and gyroid mesoporous materials formed by liquid crystal templating. In the first part, we describe a geometric model with which the lattice parameters of different liquid crystal mesophases can be predicted as a function of their water/surfactant/oil volume fractions, based on certain geometric parameters relating to the constituent surfactant molecules. We demonstrate the application of this model to the lamellar (LR), hexagonal (H1), and gyroid bicontinuous cubic (V1) mesophases formed by the binary Brij-56 (C16EO10)/water system and the ternary Brij-56/hexadecane/water system. In this way, we demonstrate predictable and independent control over the size of the cylinders (with hexadecane) and their spacing (with water). In the second part, we produce mesoporous platinum using as templates hexagonal and gyroid phases with different compositions and show that in each case the symmetry and lattice parameter of the metal nanostructure faithfully replicate those of the liquid crystal template, which is itself in agreement with the model. This demonstrates a rational control over the geometry, size, and spacing of pores in a mesoporous metal.